Q AND A OF ECONOMICS



(a)  –Economics is the study of how human beings make their living in order to satisfy their wants.
        -Economics is a social science which deals with behavior of people e.g. in consumption of goods and services.
(b) The reason economics has many definitions is because of the evolving views of the subject itself or     different views among economists.
(c) Economics is split between analysis of how the overall economy works and how single markets function. Economic theory developed considerably between the appearance of Smith’s The Wealth of Nations and the Great Depression, but there was no separation into microeconomics and macroeconomics. Economists implicitly assumed that either markets were in equilibrium—such that prices would adjust to equalize supply and demand—or that in the event of a transient shock, such as a financial crisis or a famine, markets would quickly return to equilibrium. In other words, economists believed that the study of individual markets would adequately explain the behavior of what we now call aggregate variables, such as unemployment and output.
Microeconomics is based on models of consumers or firms (which economists call agents) that make decisions about what to buy, sell, or produce—with the assumption that those decisions result in perfect market clearing (demand equals supply) and other ideal conditions. Macroeconomics, on the other hand, began from observed divergences from what would have been anticipated results under the classical tradition. Today the two fields coexist and complement each other.
(d) Why professor Samuelson emphasizes on the words choose and scarce- All human wants can’t be satisfied due to scarcity of resources. If there are many wants and resources are scarce, choices will be made. Scarcity is the fundamental economic problem of having seemingly unlimited human wants and needs in a world of limited resources. It states that society has insufficient productive resources to fulfill all human wants and needs.


In microeconomics, economies of scale are the cost advantages that enterprises obtain due to size, with cost per unit of output generally decreasing with increasing scale as fixed costs are spread out over more units of output. Often operational efficiency is also greater with increasing scale, leading to lower variable cost as well. The simple meaning of economies of scale is doing things more efficiently with increasing size of operation.
Economies of scale apply to a variety of organizational and business situations and at various levels, such as a business or manufacturing unit, plant or an entire enterprise. For example, a large manufacturing facility would be expected to have a lower cost per unit of output than a smaller facility, all other factors being equal, while a company with many facilities should have a cost advantage over a competitor with fewer.
Economies of scale often have limits, such as passing the optimum design point where costs per additional unit begin to increase. Common limits include exceeding the nearby raw material supply, such as wood in the lumber, pulp and paper industry. A common limit for low cost per unit weight commodities is saturating the regional market, thus having to ship product uneconomical distances. Other limits include using energy less efficiently or having a higher defect rate.

Physical and engineering basis
Some of the economies of scale recognized in engineering have a physical basis, such as the square-cube law, by which the surface of a vessel increases by the square of the dimensions while the volume increases by the cube. This law has a direct effect on the capital cost of such things as buildings, factories, pipelines, ships and airplanes.
In structural engineering, the strength of beams increases with the cube of the thickness.
Friction loss of trains, ships and airplanes is proportional to cross sectional area, so making these longer results in less friction per unit of cargo volume, speed and other drag factors being equal.
Heat losses from industrial processes vary per unit of volume for pipes, tanks and other vessels in a relationship somewhat similar to the square-cube law.[
Capital and operating cost
Overall costs of capital projects are known to be subject to economies of scale. A crude estimate is that if the capital cost for a given sized piece of equipment is known, changing the size will change the capital cost by the 0.6 power of the capacity ratio (the point six power rule).
In estimating capital cost, it typically requires an insignificant amount of labor, and possibly not much more in materials, to install a larger capacity electrical wire or pipe having significantly greater capacity.
The cost of a unit of capacity of many types of equipment, such as electric motors, centrifugal pumps, diesel and gasoline engines, decreases as size increases. Also, the efficiency increases with size.
Operating crew size
Operating crew size for ships, airplanes, trains, etc., does not increase in proportion to capacity.
Many manufacturing facilities, especially those making bulk materials like chemicals, refined petroleum products, cement and paper, have labor requirements that are not greatly influenced by changes in plant capacity. This is because labor requirements of automated processes tend to be based on the complexity of the operation rather than production, and many manufacturing facilities have nearly the same basic number of processing steps and pieces of equipment, regardless of production.
Economies of scale and returns to scale
Economies of scale is related to and can easily be confused with the theoretical economic notion of returns to scale. Where economies of scale refer to a firm's costs, returns to scale describe the relationship between inputs and outputs in a long-run (all inputs variable) production function. A production function has constant returns to scale if increasing all inputs by some proportion results in output increasing by that same proportion. Returns are decreasing if, say, doubling inputs results in less than double the output, and increasing if more than double the output. If a mathematical function is used to represent the production function, and if that production function is homogeneous, returns to scale are represented by the degree of homogeneity of the function. Homogeneous production functions with constant returns to scale are first degree homogeneous, increasing returns to scale are represented by degrees of homogeneity greater than one, and decreasing returns to scale by degrees of homogeneity less than one.
 
Mathematical economics is the application of mathematical methods to represent theories and analyze problems in economics. By convention, the applied methods refer to those beyond simple geometry, such as differential and integral calculus, difference and differential equations, matrix algebra, mathematical programming, and other computational methods. An advantage claimed for the approach is its allowing formulation of theoretical relationships with rigor, generality, and simplicity.
It is argued that mathematics allows economists to form meaningful, testable propositions about wide-ranging and complex subjects which could less easily be expressed informally. Further, the language of mathematics allows economists to make specific, positive claims about controversial or contentious subjects that would be impossible without mathematics. Much of economic theory is currently presented in terms of mathematical economic models, a set of stylized and simplified mathematical relationships asserted to clarify assumptions and implications.
Broad applications include:
  • optimization problems as to goal equilibrium, whether of a household, business firm, or policy maker
  • static (or equilibrium) analysis in which the economic unit (such as a household) or economic system (such as a market or the economy) is modeled as not changing
  • comparative statics as to a change from one equilibrium to another induced by a change in one or more factors
  • Dynamic analysis, tracing changes in an economic system over time, for example from economic growth.
In connection to this, the demand curve equation is given by Q = a - bP where ‘a’ and ‘b’ are parameters.
A giffen good is a consumer good for which demand rises when the price increases, and demand falls when the price decreases. This phenomenon is notable and it arises because it violates the law of demand, whereby demand should increase as price falls and decrease as price rises.
Chebyshev's inequality guarantees that in any probability distribution, "nearly all" values are close to the mean — the precise statement being that no more than 1/k2 of the distribution's values can be more than k standard deviations away from the mean (or equivalently, at least 1 - 1/k2 of the distribution's values are within k standard deviations of the mean). The inequality has great utility because it can be applied to completely arbitrary distributions (unknown except for mean and variance), for example it can be used to prove the weak law of large numbers.
In practical usage, in contrast to the empirical rule, which applies to normal distributions, under Chebyshev's Inequality just 75% of values lie within two standard deviations of the mean and 89% of values within three standard deviations.[1][2]
The term Chebyshev's inequality may also refer to the Markov's inequality, especially in the context of analysis.
The formulae: Pr(|X-A|=>KY)<=1/K2





RESEARCH SUMMARY- VISION 2030

INTRODUCTION; 

 Vision 2030 is a long term development blue print to create a globally competitive and prosperous nation with a high quality of life by 2030 that aims to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030 in a clean and secure environment. Vision 2030 consists of four pillars, the economic pillar, social pillar, political pillar and enablers and macro pillar. These pillars are discussed below. From every pillar are projects. These projects are the strategies that the government plans to deploy so that the vision 2030 can be realized. I will discuss the strategies that I think are the best.

 ECONOMIC PILLAR:

It consists of Tourism, Agriculture, Wholesale and retail trade, Manufacturing, IT enabled services (Previously known a business process of sharing) and financial services. Under the economic pillar, the government has several projects to realize the vision 2030. I have picked two important strategies (Projects) and they are discussed below: ASAL development project: The project aims to increase the area of ASAL (Arid and Semi-Arid Lands) under irrigation. It has already commenced this project, which is under the ministry of Agriculture. The government plans to put an additional 600000 hectares under irrigation for small scale irrigation and Tana delta integrated sugar project. This project will increase food production in the country, and will be a vital strategy to curb famine. Deepening of capital markets: This project aims on creating a conducive environment to fund vision 2030 through the capital markets and promoting long investments. It’s a fundamental and important project. So far the following sectors have commenced:
 -Bond market reforms
 -Automation of bond trading and maturity lengthened to 30 years. 
-Demutualization of Nairobi stock exchange has been completed
 -Development of new product and services and so on.. 
 If we see this project to completion, we will be able to create access to capital markets, raise savings and investment rates and raise stock market capitalization thus attracting more investments in the country. Other projects in this pillar include building markets, creation of producer business groups among others. 

 SOCIAL PILLAR:

It consists of Education and training, Health, Environment, Housing and urbanization, Gender, Children and social development and Youths and sports. The projects/strategies I that I thinks that are very important are discussed below. Under the social pillar, a project known as “channel funds directly to health facilities” caught my attention. Recently in the country there have been incidents where medicine and drug supply is a problem. Many hospitals are not well equipped and the equipment they use is out of date. This project is aimed at allowing funds to be directly channeled to heath facilities. Another strategy under this pillar is that the government plans to construct and equip secondary schools, expand and rehabilitate existing schools and the construction and rehabilitation of at least one boarding primary school in each constituency in Arid and semi Arid areas. Education is a vital ingredient in the making of the soup of social growth as well as economic growth. The objective of these projects is to address the inadequate physical facilities at secondary school level and increase of the enrollment rates and ensure equity in the disadvantaged areas respectively. Just to explore more on the construction and rehabilitation of at least one boarding primary school in each constituency in Arid and semi Arid lands project: To rehabilitate, expand and equip a single stream boarding primary school, Ksh 42 million is required. This will be used to rehabilitate, expand and equip classrooms, administration block, playfield, fencing and gate, three 90-bed dormitories, 10 toilets, 5 teachers’ houses, Dining Hall, kitchen, library/book store and two large water tanks.

 

 POLITICAL PILLAR:

This consists of the rule of law- (The Kenyan constitution 2010), Electoral and political processes, democracy and public service delivery, transparency and accountability, security, peace building and conflict management. Political success is important in every country. The people in a country determine the leaders that will enable them to achieve the goals set for that particular country. Constitutional reform project: The project is aimed at finalizing the national Constitution together with its enabling legislation. So far, legislations have been enacted in the areas of judicial reform, electoral reform, internal security reform, public service reforms, promotion and protection of human rights, public finance, and aspects of the devolved system in an effort to operationalize the 2010 Constitution. Kenya will benefit from this strategy by National governance reforms based on the Constitution, which was chosen by the people of Kenya. Truth, justice and reconciliation commission: This is An independent Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission which has been formed to inquire into human rights violations. In the 2007 post election violence, human rights were violated. Many people suffered a fate which wasn’t of their making, and the justice process was painfully slow. This commission will see that such acts will not be seen again. The commission plans to address all historical injustices and promote peace, justice, healing, reconciliation, inculcate national values and consequently national unity among the people of Kenya.  

ENABLERS AND MACRO PILLAR:

It consists of the foundation of vision 2030, macroeconomics, energy, science, Technology and innovation, land reform, human resource development, security and public sector reforms. I will discuss Energy and security because I feel they are the best strategies in this pillar.
 Energy: The objective of this project is to increase national power generation, provide the energy required to accelerate growth and mobilize private sector capital for generation of electricity from renewable energy. It’s a strategy that will properly deal with time to time power interruption. It will also see that the whole country gets electricity, especially the rural areas which will enable these areas to grow and develop like their urban brothers.

  PROJECT COMPONENTS 

• Olkaria 1 – 140 MW Geothermal Power Project
 • Olkaria II – 35 MW Third Unit • Olkaria III - Additional 85 MW Geothermal Power Plan
 • Olkaria IV - 140 Mw Geothermal Power Plant • Menengai 1000MW Geothermal Project, installation of well head units; and Construction of a 140Mw pow 
• Dongo Kundu Coal fired Plant 600 Mw
 • Kiambere Unit 1 Upgrade from 72 to 82 Mw)
 • Tana Hydro Power Station Upgrade by 10MW to 20 MW
 • Ngong Wind Plant – 5 MW • 120 Mw Medium-Speed Diesel Plant Built at Kipevu 
• Sangoro Hydro-Power Station – 21Mw
 • Kindaruma Unit 3 - 32 Mw. and rehabilitation
 • Athi River Mining Coal Power Station 19 Mw
 • Wind Power Station Built at Lake Turkana - 300 Mw
 • Ngong I Wind Phase II – 6.8MW 
 • Ngong II Wind – 13.6 MW 
 • Eburu 2.3 MW Geothermal
 • Wellhead Generators 
  Security: This project involves the establishment of a security data centre to accelerate the sharing of information across all security and policing agencies. So far Data Centre is 40% complete, with a view to link the police data centre with IPRS system within the Ministry of State for Immigration and Registration of Persons. The data centre is also aimed to be linked with the traffic police systems. Security has been a big thorn in the elephant’s foot as far as I am concerned. This strategy is such a good idea because all security information will be linked and it will be of great benefit to Kenyans because security threats willbe minimized with a big fraction.

  ASSESSMENT OF VISION 2030: KENYA’S GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES 

A key question that a growth strategy for Kenya cannot avoid is: what are kenya’s key growth opportunities that successive political and policy regimes have not successfully exploited? A great opportunity that the country has and which can be exploited in a growth strategy is its location. The country has access to a large coastline and can therefore adopt a coastal manufacturing strategy. This would drive export-led growth. A development policy document should therefore take cognizance of these growth opportunities for the country. In our assessment, vision 2030 seems to have achieved this.

 VISION ASSESSMENT 

The vision 2030 development was quite consultative and comprehensive, and therefore covered the key issues facing Kenya. Relevant policies for consolidating economic recovery and driving Kenya to a higher growth and development path have therefore been brought forth.

 CONCLUSION: 

Despite the gaps that have been observed, we are of the view that vision 2030 can deliver the growth and development that Kenya aspires to achieve, albeit with some delay given the global economic crisis and uncertainty about the timing of recovery. Its success will, however, depend on maintaining macroeconomics stability and implementing key structural reforms and programmes in the social pillar, and managing political transitions and reform of institutions targeted by the political pillar of the vision document. The recommended reforms of the pensions sector, insurance industry, capital markets and strengthening of the banking sector as spelt out in the vision 2030 will be critical in allowing the country to achieve this shift, as these are the sectors critical in the mobilization of savings.  

REFERENCES:

  • Government of Kenya, Ministry of planning and National Development, 2007, Kenya vision 2030. 
  • Government of Kenya, ministry of Planning and National development, 2003, Economic recovery Strategy for Wealth and Employment Creation.  
  • Google Kenya, Vision 2030 prospectives. 
  • World bank, 2003, African Development Indicators